Iran struck a Qatar LNG terminal and the Fed's dot plot walked back one of its projected 2026 cuts in the same afternoon — together they drove cash and the dollar, not gold or bonds. Futures are up +0.61% this morning; the first 30 minutes will tell you if yesterday was a dip or the start of a deeper repricing.

Stocks sold off. The S&P 500 closed 6,624.70 (-1.36%), the Nasdaq 22,152.42 (-1.46%), the Dow 46,225.15 (-1.63%), the Russell 2000 2,478.64 (-1.64%). Broad selloff — all four major indices closed in the red. Elsewhere: Gold fell 4.04% to $4,692.40, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps to 4.26%, WTI crude fell 0.55% to $95.79/bbl, and the dollar strengthened 0.05%.

Geopolitics ran the session yesterday. Oil briefly hits $119 and Europe gas prices surge after attacks on energy facilities in Qatar, Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint — roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through it daily. Any credible threat moves energy markets. That ripples into inflation expectations, transportation costs, and EM currencies. Gold fell 4.04% alongside equities — worth flagging. When gold drops with stocks, it's usually a signal that the dollar is the real safe-haven trade. Investors went to cash and USD, not bullion.

Here's what this means for your portfolio. At 4.26%, the 10-year yield is real competition for equities. Growth-heavy portfolios (QQQ) are most exposed to further increases. If yields stay elevated, value and dividend-payers (VTV, DVY, SCHD) have historically held up better.

Watch: the 10-year yield — further moves above 4.26% would widen the pressure on valuations; geopolitical headlines — escalation or de-escalation will move oil, FX, and risk sentiment quickly; gold — if risk-off sentiment re-intensifies, gold could recover sharply as the safe-haven trade catches up.

Pre-market is pointing to a positive open (S&P +0.61% | Nasdaq +0.62% | Dow +0.50%). The market is calling yesterday a dip — not a trend. Whether buyers follow through at the open is the question.

APAC closed broadly lower overnight — ASX 200 led (-1.65%), while Nikkei 225 lagged (-3.38%).

No data today. Markets trade on news flow, Fed speakers, and whatever the tape feels like. Quiet data days can actually amplify headline-driven moves — less signal to anchor against.

For investors, the playbook bifurcates sharply. Energy infrastructure ETFs (XLE, AMLP, XOP) are the obvious beneficiary of a sustained oil bid, but the $119 spike already faded — you want exposure to a structurally elevated oil price, not a panic overshoot. TLT and bond duration (TLT, IEF) are toxic in this environment: yields rising on inflation fears plus a hawkish Fed is a double headwind. The gold selloff (GLD) is the most interesting signal — a 4% drop into a geopolitical crisis screams forced liquidation, not a trend reversal, making GLD a tactical re-entry candidate once the margin-call wave clears. Avoid high-beta tech (QQQ) and rate-sensitive sectors like utilities (XLU) and REITs (XLRE) until yields stabilize.

Pre-market futures are recovering modestly — S&P futures +0.6% to 6,666, Nasdaq futures +0.62% — but the overnight APAC session was uniformly ugly: Nikkei -3.38%, Nifty 50 -3.26%, KOSPI -2.73%, Hang Seng -2.02%. European markets are extending losses in early trade, with DAX -2.25% and FTSE -1.84%. The swing factor today is oil: if WTI holds above $95 and Gulf escalation headlines continue, the pre-market bounce fails and yesterday's lows get tested. If oil retreats toward $90 on de-escalation signals, the bounce has legs. There is no economic calendar data today, so headlines own the tape.