The dominant signal is a three-way split: oil surging on the Hormuz blockade, gold selling off despite active geopolitical risk, and equities grinding higher on AI earnings momentum. That gold drop is the cross-asset anomaly worth watching: a 1.2% decline in a live military standoff suggests forced rotation or profit-taking rather than a cooling threat environment. Futures are flat to marginally lower, pointing to a cautious open as the market waits to see whether the U.S. Navy's Hormuz guidance operation escalates or stabilizes.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,230, up 0.29%, while the Nasdaq led with a 0.89% gain to 25,114 as Big Tech earnings rewarded heavy AI capex spending. The Dow lagged, down 0.31% to 49,499, dragged by rate-sensitive names. WTI crude surged 3.17% to $105.17 on the OPEC+ output increase of 188,000 bpd, a move that reads as inadequate against the Hormuz supply shock. The 10-year yield slipped 1.2 basis points to 4.378%, and the USD Index ticked up fractionally to 98.39. The outlier: gold fell 1.22% to $4,573, a sharp drop that defies the geopolitical backdrop.

Two catalysts drove the session. First, the OPEC+ 188,000 bpd production hike (the first meeting without the UAE after its May 1 departure) paradoxically pushed WTI higher because the market read the small increment as confirmation that the cartel is too fractured to meaningfully offset Hormuz disruption. Second, Big Tech earnings beat expectations, with the market explicitly rewarding heavy AI infrastructure spending, pulling the Nasdaq outright higher and masking weakness in old-economy Dow components. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh's comments on Fed independence, reported as met with "confusion and concern," injected a quiet note of institutional uncertainty into the bond market, though not enough to move yields materially.

For ETF investors, the energy trade is back on the table but with a binary risk attached. (XLE, USO) benefit directly from $105 WTI with potential toward $126 if the Hormuz guidance operation triggers Iranian retaliation, but face a cliff if any diplomatic resolution surfaces. The Nasdaq's outperformance on AI capex themes keeps (QQQ, SOXX) in play on dips: the SoftBank Roze AI IPO ambitions and the Nemotron Coalition formation both signal the private market is pricing in a sustained AI infrastructure buildout. Gold's counterintuitive drop makes (GLD) a potential re-entry candidate rather than an exit: the metal closed at $4,573 in an environment where the Strait of Hormuz is actively contested and PCE is running at 3.5%, so sellers here are likely tactical, not structural. TLT remains a hold, not a chase: the Warsh Fed independence noise is a slow-burn risk for long-duration bonds.

S&P futures are at 7,247, essentially flat with a slight downward bias of 0.15%. KOSPI's 5.1% rip overnight is the notable APAC signal: South Korea's economy is acutely exposed to both energy costs and chip-cycle dynamics, and that move suggests regional institutional money is chasing the AI semiconductor rally hard. The swing factor today is 9:15 AM ET Industrial Production, a tier-2 read that will either confirm or complicate the stagflation narrative building around $105 oil and 3.5% PCE. Watch the $105 WTI level: a hold there keeps energy bid; a break toward $102 would signal Hormuz de-escalation chatter is gaining traction.