The dominant mood is cautious optimism built on a fragile foundation: US-Iran peace diplomacy via Pakistan's one-page framework sent oil down nearly 8% over two sessions, lifting equities on lower input costs while gold still climbed, refusing to treat the ceasefire signal as settled. That divergence, gold up 1.27% while oil collapses, is the cross-asset tell: markets are pricing de-escalation in energy but not in macro risk. Futures are pointing to a modestly positive open, but the Hormuz framework has yet to be ratified by anyone with a navy.

Yesterday's US session was a broad risk-on rip. The S&P 500 closed at 7,365, up 1.46%, with the Nasdaq leading at +2.02% to 25,838. The Dow crossed 49,910, within striking distance of 50,000. Gold climbed to $4,741 despite the equity surge, which is not normal behavior in a clean risk-on session. The 10-year yield fell 6 basis points to 4.356%, the dollar index slid to 97.84, and WTI crude cratered 2.55% to $92.66, continuing the two-day collapse from $100-plus levels.

The catalyst is the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz framework. The one-page proposal transmitted through Pakistan, combined with Trump's earlier pause of Project Freedom, drained the war premium out of oil with unusual speed. Think of the war premium as a surcharge baked into every barrel: when traders believe the Strait stays open, that surcharge evaporates and energy costs fall like a tax cut for the entire economy. Airlines, industrials, and consumer discretionary names all got a direct margin tailwind. Meanwhile the Fed's 8-4 split on rate hikes, reported yesterday, kept the dollar under pressure and pushed investors into equities and gold simultaneously, a classic stagflation hedge rotation.

For ETF holders, the oil collapse is a two-sided trade. Energy bulls (XLE) are under pressure as upstream producers lose revenue even as Shell beat estimates on prior high-price inventory. The flip side is the airline and transport trade (JETS), which gets a direct fuel cost benefit. Wind and renewables names also caught a bid per headlines, pointing to ICLN as a secondary beneficiary of the energy pivot narrative. GLD continues to defy the risk-on label: with PCE inflation at 4.5% and a central bank buying 244 tonnes in Q1, the structural gold bid is independent of geopolitics. TLT got a boost from the 6bp yield drop, but a ceasefire would likely revive inflation concerns and reprice the long end higher, making TLT a short-term trade at best.

Futures are flat to marginally positive: S&P futures at 7,395, up 0.08%, Nasdaq futures up 0.03%. The Nikkei delivered a blockbuster +5.58% session, KOSPI +1.43%, both pricing the Hormuz relief aggressively. Europe is flat early. Today's swing factor is the Strait of Hormuz framework durability: any Iran rejection or naval incident will reverse the oil drop and hit equities hard. McDonald's earnings this morning are a secondary read on consumer health. Apollo CEO Rowan's correction warning adds a headline risk overhang that could clip any gap-up attempt.