The Dow added 0.02%. Two basis points. Not a conviction, a shrug dressed up as a close. Nasdaq ripped 1.71% to 26,247, KOSPI went up 4.32% while New York slept, oil jumped 2.33%, and Spirit Airlines quietly stopped existing. This is what narrow conviction looks like: one airline finding out what $97 crude does to a balance sheet built on $60 crude, and the rest of the market deciding that's someone else's problem.

Nasdaq +1.71% to 26,247. S&P 500 +0.84% to 7,399. Russell 2000 +0.76%. Dow +0.02% - the one index that refused to participate. WTI crude +2.33% to $97.64. 10Y yield down 2.8 bps to 4.364%: bonds barely caught a bid on a day when Trump and Netanyahu both confirmed the Iran war is ongoing. That is a tell. USD Index +0.13% to 97.96. Gold -0.89% to $4,678 - its second consecutive day of selling from last week's $4,727 peak, because the market decided direct energy exposure was more interesting than macro panic gold.

The engine is the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA labeled it "the biggest supply shock in history." Saudi Aramco posted a 26% Q1 profit surge: their pipeline runs around the Strait, so every tanker rerouted away from it is money in their pocket. Trump rejected Iran's latest peace offer. Netanyahu declared the war "not over." Spirit Airlines ceased operations Friday, jet fuel costs cited as the final blow. Think of the Strait as a toll booth that just closed. The oil on this side gets more valuable. The airlines on the wrong side run out of runway.

Energy is the clearest trade on the board. Aramco's 26% Q1 profit surge is structural, not seasonal: as long as the Strait stays closed, pipeline-adjacent plays have pricing power the market hasn't fully priced yet. XLE and AMLP are direct beneficiaries. ITA dipped on peace-talk headlines that were dead on arrival: Netanyahu's "war is not over" makes that dip a potential entry if ITA holds its 5-day moving average at the open. JETS is uninvestable. Spirit is the leading indicator, not the lagging one. Do not buy the dip until WTI breaks below $90.

Gold's pullback to $4,678 is not a trend break. The market is rotating from macro-panic gold into direct energy exposure. The underlying thesis - Fed on hold, Hormuz closed, deficit spending - has not changed. GLD holders: hold, do not read this as a sell. TLT faces a ceiling: 10Y dipped only 2.8 bps on a day with active war escalation and a geopolitical premium still baked into every energy contract. Energy-driven inflation is keeping the Fed sidelined and bonds capped. Avoid adding duration until WTI prints a sustained move below $93.

Pre-market is flat to marginally lower: S&P futures 7,415 (-0.05%), Nasdaq 29,303 (-0.10%). KOSPI's +4.32% overnight surge is the loudest signal in the session: find the catalyst before the open. Europe is dead flat - consistent with wait-and-see mode after the Iran peace talk collapse. The swing factor today is the Iran-Trump dynamic: any signal of resumed negotiations pulls oil lower and lifts beaten-down transports. Any hardening of Netanyahu's posture pushes WTI back toward $100 and keeps the energy trade running. Watch $98.50 on WTI as the line between "contained" and "back to the prior highs."