Equities finished higher. Crude crossed $101. Gold fell. The Saudi Aramco CEO went on record saying Strait of Hormuz normalization won't come before 2027, the IEA labeled it the biggest supply shock in history, and Wall Street closed up 0.19%. Asia apparently reads the same headlines and reached a different conclusion: KOSPI down 2.3% overnight, India off 1.5%, Nasdaq futures down 0.7% pre-market. Yields climbed 4.6bps to 4.41%. CPI at 8:30 ET now gets to settle the argument.

S&P 500 at 7,412. Dow at 49,704. Nasdaq at 26,274. Russell 2000 at 2,870 - the index that tends to know things early, barely flinched. The actual session: WTI crude +3% to $101.03, the market's invoice for a closed chokepoint. The 10Y yield climbed 4.6bps to 4.41% - the bond market doing the math on triple-digit oil and calling it inflation. And gold dropped 0.23% to $4,707 on the exact day the IEA declared the biggest supply shock in history. Gold falling during a genuine supply shock is either a tell or a coil. Find out which at 8:30.

The driver is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's rejection of the latest ceasefire terms and the effective closure of the world's most critical oil chokepoint sent crude surging, with Saudi Aramco's CEO publicly warning normalization won't come until 2027 if disruptions persist. The IEA labeled it the biggest supply shock in history. Spirit Airlines folding under fuel costs is the canary - this is no longer an abstract macro risk, it is a corporate casualty event. Meanwhile, Trump's Beijing summit with Xi, loaded with 16 CEOs and a dangerous agenda covering Taiwan arms sales, Hong Kong, and a potential tech divorce order against Meta, adds geopolitical noise that markets haven't fully priced.

For ETF investors, the energy trade is not finished. XLE and XOP benefit directly from sustained $100+ crude, but the second-order pain is arriving: airlines and transports are getting crushed (avoid JETS and IYT), while stagflationary pressure from oil-driven input costs makes the Fed's job harder and puts rate-sensitive equities like utilities (XLU) and long bonds (TLT) in a tough spot as yields drift higher. Gold's failure to rally on a genuine supply shock suggests the dollar's modest bid is capping it - but that setup creates a coiled spring if the dollar weakens on a hot CPI print forcing a stagflation narrative.

CPI at 8:30 AM ET is today's swing factor. Futures are already soft: Nasdaq futures down 0.7%, S&P futures off 0.38%, and KOSPI's 2.3% drop overnight signals Asia is further along in repricing energy shock risk than US equities were yesterday. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading would validate the stagflation read, pressure growth equities further, and potentially unlock gold's next leg. A soft CPI could give the Fed cover, stabilize bonds, and let equities recover — but oil above $100 means the relief would be temporary. Watch the 7,380 level on S&P futures as the pre-CPI floor.