Trump hit snooze on Iran, oil fell 5%, and the Dow spent the session celebrating something the bond market refuses to endorse. Gold stayed at $4,545 while crude cratered - that divergence is the whole trade. The 10-year climbed to 4.623%: not a number that says peace has been achieved.

Yesterday's US close was a split verdict. The Dow added 0.32% to 49,686, while the S&P 500 barely moved at -0.07% to 7,403, Nasdaq dropped 0.51% to 26,091, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.65% to 2,775 - small caps are the canaries of domestic credit, and right now they are canaries with a cough. WTI crude collapsed 5.14% to $103.08 on Trump's Iran delay, pulling the immediate Strait of Hormuz risk off the table. Gold held at $4,545, the 10-year climbed 2.8 basis points to 4.623%, and the USD Index edged up to 99.22.

Trump's decision to delay military action against Iran removed the acute supply shock risk - officially. G7 Finance Ministers met in Paris and flagged extreme bond market volatility driven by the energy shock, while the BoE and ECB are both signaling June rate hikes into stalling GDP growth. The Strait is no longer the story. The stagflation math - expensive oil, rising yields, shrinking growth runway - very much is. The 10-year at 4.623% while equities barely moved is the bond market saying it does not believe the story equities are telling, same as yesterday, same as the day before.

For ETF investors, the Dow's outperformance signals defensives and value holding up while growth gets repriced. TLT faces headwinds at 4.623% yields unless Iran re-escalates and triggers a flight to safety - which makes for a uniquely uncomfortable thesis: you need more geopolitical chaos to make your bonds work. GLD is the cleanest expression of the stagflation read: gold refused to sell off when crude crashed, meaning buyers are defending it on inflation and geopolitical floors, not momentum. That distinction is worth money. Energy (XLE) took a 5% body blow, but $103 WTI with a live Iran conflict is still structurally elevated - reduce or hold flat until the next escalation headline or a WTI break above $106 confirms re-entry. Small caps (IWM) are the worst-positioned asset class in a high-yield, high-inflation environment, and yesterday's relative underperformance confirms it.

Going into today, S&P futures are down 0.38% and Nasdaq futures off 0.64%, pointing to a soft open. KOSPI's 3.25% drop is the most alarming APAC signal: South Korea is pricing in energy import costs and AI supply chain disruptions from the Iran war coverage, and Seoul usually gets the supply chain math right before New York does. No US data is on the calendar today. The only swing factor is geopolitical: any signal on Iran reprices crude and yields simultaneously. Watch $103 WTI in early trade and whether Nasdaq holds 26,000 into the afternoon. If both crack, that is not a healthy pullback.