Risk appetite is holding but the cross-asset picture is sending mixed signals. Oil at nearly $99 a barrel is the dominant story: Trump's Hormuz negotiations failing to close means energy inflation stays live, and that is quietly pressuring the bond market even as equities grind higher. Gold sold off yesterday despite geopolitical noise, futures are flat this morning, and Europe is not confirming the overnight Asia surge - the Nikkei's 2.7% rip looks like a local story, not a global green light.

US equities closed mixed but largely positive. The S&P 500 finished at 7,445 (up 0.17%), the Dow added 0.55% to 50,285, and the Russell 2000 led with a 0.93% gain. The Nasdaq was nearly flat, up just 0.09%. The real story was in commodities and rates: WTI Crude surged 2.6% to $98.85, the 10-year yield ticked up 1.4 basis points to 4.586%, and gold slipped 0.43% to $4,520 despite a backdrop of active geopolitical conflict.

The crude spike is the catalyst that ties everything together. Trump's Hormuz negotiations, described earlier this week as in their 'final stages,' have not closed, and the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran remains fragile. Resumption of commercial shipping was tentative at best. Think of the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure valve on a boiler: every day it stays partially closed, energy inflation stays elevated, and the Fed's 'soft landing' narrative gets more complicated. The Strait of Hormuz stalemate is what pushed WTI back toward triple digits and kept the 10-year yield from rallying despite the May CPI reading of 2.3%. Meanwhile, Nvidia's blowout earnings generated headlines but not price: shares were soft after hours, confirming that the AI chip trade is saturated, with capital rotating into energy infrastructure and industrials instead.

For ETF investors, the oil move reopens the energy trade. (XLE, XOP) look constructive if WTI holds above $98; the geopolitical floor under crude is real as long as the Hormuz situation is unresolved. The rotation out of pure-play chip names and into AI infrastructure themes, highlighted by Lenovo's 20% jump on near-doubled AI revenue, points toward (ROBO, BOTZ, GRID) over (SOXX). Gold's failure to rally on geopolitical stress is a warning sign for precious metals bulls: if $4,520 doesn't hold as a floor today, (GLD) becomes vulnerable to a flush. On the fixed income side, bonds are not confirming the equity rally: yields are sticky at 4.59%, meaning (TLT) remains a trap until Hormuz actually closes.

Going into today, S&P futures are up 0.17% to 7,479 and Nasdaq futures are +0.24%, pointing to a soft positive open. The Nikkei's 2.68% surge is the standout APAC signal, likely driven by the Trump-Xi truce tailwind and yen softness with USD/JPY at 159.12, but Europe is showing zero follow-through at the open. The one scheduled event is New Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET, a second-tier print that won't move the tape unless it badly misses. The real swing factor today is any headline on Hormuz diplomacy or an oil inventory number: a credible ceasefire extension sends crude lower and provides bond relief, while a breakdown sends WTI through $100 and reprices everything.