NFP day. The Dow put up +1.73% to 51,562 yesterday, small-caps added +1.45%, and the S&P crept +0.41% to 7,584. The Nasdaq did nothing. Closed -0.09% at 26,831, flat enough to suggest the rate-cut optimism is starting to look like a one-index party. This morning, S&P futures are down 0.37% and Nasdaq futures are off 0.87%. The Dow is barely positive. That is not a unified tape.

Across the Pacific, Broadcom projected Q3 AI revenue of $16 billion. Below expectations. That is all it took. Broadcom shed $285 billion in market cap overnight. The ripple hit Seoul by morning open: Samsung -6.7%, SK Hynix -8.8%. The KOSPI fell 5.5% to 8,160 and the Korea Exchange triggered a sell-side sidecar before 9:15 AM local time. This is what happens when 54% of an index is two stocks and both stocks are the same trade. Foreign investors have now been net sellers for 20 consecutive sessions, pulling 70 trillion won out of Korea this year. Jensen Huang flew into Seoul this morning and said he had "some surprises" prepared. The market did not care.

The rest of today belongs to the 8:30 AM ET NFP print. Consensus: +85K to +115K jobs, unemployment holding at 4.3%. The S&P's push to 7,600 has been priced on the assumption that the economy is cooling fast enough to force Fed cuts but not so fast that it breaks anything. The 10-year yield eased to 4.477% yesterday, gold held at $4,494, WTI slipped to $92.86, and the dollar softened to 99.18. That cross-asset picture says the rate-cut trade is intact. The NFP number will confirm or destroy it. Meanwhile, Trump is floating a meeting with Iran's supreme leader while U.S. Navy ships quietly help tankers exit the Strait of Hormuz. The oil shock premium is not priced out yet. It will not be priced out by one diplomatic tweet.

The NFP print is the only thing that matters at 8:30 AM. Below 85K is perversely bullish for bonds and small-caps: TLT catches the duration repricing, IWM catches the rate-cut optimism. Above 115K breaks the thesis entirely: yields reprice higher, growth names get hit hardest, and defensive XLU and XLP become the right shelter. The in-between number, 85-115K, probably gives you a muted tape that drifts into the weekend.

Gold holding at $4,494 while the Dow had a 1.7% day is the tell. This is not a risk-on asset being dragged up by equities. It is a separate bid. Buyers are treating $4,490 as a floor with the Hormuz premium still live and the dollar soft at 99.18. GLD stays relevant regardless of what NFP prints.

The KOSPI's 5.5% drop is the other signal worth sitting with. This was not a Korea-specific political shock. Broadcom's $16B AI guidance miss wiped $285B in US market cap overnight, and Seoul, which had turned itself into a leveraged pure-play on the global AI chip trade, absorbed the full hit. Samsung and SK Hynix together are 54% of the index. When the AI story wobbles in the US, Korea does not wobble. Korea falls. Trim or avoid SOXX and EWT today. The Broadcom hangover is not resolved in one session.