The peace deal arrived and oil did what everyone expected. Gold did not. WTI crude dumped 5.14% to $80.52 as Hormuz reopened. Predictable. Gold jumped 3.41% to $4,359 on the same session. Not predictable. The market celebrated the end of a war while buying geopolitical insurance, because apparently traders read the fine print on the ceasefire and found the part about unresolved nuclear timelines.

The Dow added 0.70% to 51,202, the S&P 500 gained 0.50% to 7,431, the Nasdaq lagged at +0.31% to 25,889. The 10-year yield edged up 2.4 bps to 4.487%, which tells you the bond market is treating the oil crash as a disinflationary gift, not a recession warning. The USD Index slipped to 99.52. Russell 2000 punched 0.79% to 2,944, which is either small-caps joining a real rally or everyone buying the obvious peace trade at once. Also: SpaceX debuted at a $2.1 trillion valuation, surging 19.2% on day one and making Musk the world's first trillionaire. On the same day Iran agreed to stop mining the Strait. Fine.

The Hormuz Breakthrough MOU ends three months of conflict and reopens 20% of global oil supply. When that restriction lifts, energy prices collapse, inflation expectations follow, and the Fed's case for hiking evaporates. Traders are now pricing a neutral FOMC stance at tomorrow's meeting, treating the oil crash as the central bank's unpaid assistant. Gold's 3.41% surge on the same session is the tell: buyers are not selling the metal even as inflation fears soften. Iran's nuclear negotiation window is still 60 days unresolved. Israel has not withdrawn from seized territories. The deal solved the oil problem. It has not solved the other problems.

S&P futures are up 2.16% to 7,595. Nasdaq futures are up 3.14% to 30,594. That is a gap open at fresh all-time highs before 9:30, and anyone trying to buy the open is competing with every algo that already saw this coming. APAC was not subtle: the Nikkei surged 4.99% to 69,318, the KOSPI exploded 5.20% to 8,546. Two of the most liquid equity markets in Asia treating this as a regime change, not a one-day pop. Europe is flat in early trade, which is Europe's way of saying "we need more coffee before we decide if peace is real."

Energy (XLE, USO) is the obvious short. That is exactly why you should be careful. Oil at $80.52 with a 30-day mine-clearing timeline means supply returns in stages, not instantly. Any Hormuz delay headline and crude bounces $2. Use the futures-driven open to trim, not to pile on the short. Airlines (JETS, XTN) are collecting a fuel cost windfall with zero effort on their part. Jet fuel gets cheaper. Margins expand. Simple. Gold (GLD) at $4,359 with futures barely moved overnight. The smart money did not sell the peace deal. Do not sell it for them. Iran's nuclear window is 60 days and Israel has not stood down. GLD is portfolio insurance that happens to be working.

Watch QQQ vs. SPY at the open. Nasdaq futures are outpacing S&P futures by nearly 100 bps overnight, reversing Friday's lag. If QQQ catches up cleanly, the rally is broad and durable. If SPY keeps leading, stay overweight value and cyclicals (VTV, XLI). The BOJ hikes to 1% tomorrow, a 31-year high. USD/JPY at 160.17 is stretched. A surprise hawkish BOJ could snap the yen stronger and gut U.S. multinationals in tech and autos. Swing factor today: the 9:15 AM ET Industrial Production print. Soft read extends the rally. Hot read adds noise ahead of the FOMC. One data print standing between you and a clean Monday.