The Geneva Accord between the U.S. and Iran is the trade of the decade in slow motion: the Strait of Hormuz reopens Friday, the war premium evaporates, and the market is ripping. The standout cross-asset signal is crude oil cratering while gold holds near all-time highs, a rare split that says inflation fears are cooling but geopolitical skepticism about the 60-day nuclear negotiation window is keeping safe-haven buyers in the room. Futures are pointing to a gap-up open, with Nasdaq leading, but the story today will be whether that gap holds or fades into the SpaceX euphoria.

Monday's session was a broad risk-on surge anchored by two seismic catalysts. The S&P 500 climbed +1.65% to 7,554.29, a fresh all-time high that lasted exactly as long as it took the next headline to drop. The Dow set a record at 51,671.03, because nothing says "war is over" like blue chips throwing a parade. The Nasdaq led the pack with +3.07% to 26,683.94, dragged higher by a rocket company that isn't even profitable yet. The Russell 2000 tagged along for +0.79%, gold held firm at $4,362.30 like it didn't get the memo about peace breaking out, WTI crude collapsed -4.02% to $77.50 as the war premium got evicted overnight, the 10Y yield ticked up 2.4 bps to 4.487%, and the USD index slipped to 99.62, quietly unimpressed by all of it.

The dual engines were the Geneva Accord on the Strait of Hormuz and the SpaceX IPO afterburn. Trump electronically signed a preliminary peace deal with Iran to end three months of active conflict and reopen the strait by Friday, which functioned like pulling the emergency brake on energy-driven inflation. WTI crude falling nearly 4% in a single session is the market pricing a disinflationary dividend: cheaper energy feeds lower CPI, which gives the Fed cover to ease. Meanwhile, SpaceX surged another 19.6% to a $2.1 trillion valuation in day two of trading, reigniting IPO market momentum and pulling high-growth tech with it. Together, these two stories reset the macro narrative faster than any Fed speech could.

For investors, the oil collapse is the most actionable signal in the short run, and not the good kind if you own energy. Energy ETFs (XLE, XOP) face continued headwinds as the Hormuz reopening removes the supply-disruption premium that had been propping crude since March, peace is great for humanity and terrible for your oil book. Conversely, the disinflationary impulse is a tailwind for rate-sensitive names: utilities (XLU) and long-duration bonds (TLT) get a lift if the 10Y yield starts drifting back toward 4.3%. Gold (GLD) holding above $4,300 while oil drops sharply is a critical tell: gold is not just an inflation hedge here, it is absorbing geopolitical residual risk tied to Israel's refusal to stand down and the fragility of the 60-day nuclear clock, gold has trust issues and frankly, who can blame it. Nasdaq-heavy tech (QQQ) benefits most directly from the SpaceX IPO halo and the AI infrastructure narrative it amplifies.

Futures are pointing firmly higher: S&P futures up +0.85% to 7,625, Nasdaq futures up +1.08% to 30,887, the kind of pre-market chart that makes traders skip breakfast. KOSPI surged +2.11% on South Korean defense stock momentum, the irony of a peace deal fueling a weapons rally apparently lost on no one but the market. The Hang Seng slipped -0.91%, reflecting China's weakening retail sales data showing the first drop in over three years, the world's second-largest economy quietly raising its hand to say it's not fine either. Today's calendar is clean with no major U.S. data releases, which puts the focus squarely on two swing factors: whether global shippers begin confirming Hormuz transit plans ahead of Friday's scheduled reopening, and whether the Kevin Warsh Fed signals any accelerated easing path given the oil-driven disinflationary tailwind.