The dominant mood is cautious risk-on with a geopolitical relief valve. Trump's Iran deal cancellation of a planned strike — paired with the Cairo Hamas framework — is draining the war premium from crude and lifting equities, but the bond market is screaming a different story: the 10-year at 4.745%, up 8.2 bps, tells you the FOMC's hold with three hawk dissenters and sticky PCE at 3.7% is the real structural force. Futures are pointing higher at the open, but the divergence between a rallying Nasdaq and a Russell 2000 that closed in the red yesterday is the cross-asset signal that cuts through the noise.

Yesterday's US close was broadly positive at the index level but the internals tell a messier story. The S&P 500 gained 0.70% to 7,489.72, the Nasdaq led with a 1.00% gain to 25,373.85 on Amazon's post-earnings surge, and the Dow added 0.53% to 52,485.03. The Russell 2000 fell 0.50% to 2,931.34, a notable divergence signaling small-cap stress under rising rate pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 8.2 basis points to 4.745%, WTI crude rose 1.29% to $84.67, gold barely moved to $4,107.00, and the USD Index slipped to 99.80 as EUR and GBP strengthened.

Two catalysts drove the tape. First, the July FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75% with three hawk dissenters pushing for an immediate hike — Chair Warsh's abandonment of forward guidance is forcing the bond market to price risk on its own, which is exactly why 10-year yields are surging while 2-year yields decline. That is a bear steepener, the bond market's version of a stagflation tax: short rates anchored by a hesitant Fed, long rates rising because Q2 GDP printed 1.5% against a 1.8% estimate while core PCE stayed hot at 3.7%. Second, Amazon's 13% premarket earnings surge did the heavy lifting for the Nasdaq while Apple's 7.2% drop on China revenue weakness capped the broader advance. The geopolitical relief from the Iran deal and the Cairo Hamas framework helped crude hold gains but trimmed the pure war-premium bid.

For ETF investors, the bear steepener in Treasuries is the most actionable signal. Long-duration bond exposure (TLT) is structurally challenged as long yields rise without a Fed pivot catalyst on the horizon. The energy trade is getting crowded: CNBC is already running headlines warning that staying long oil post-Iran deal will get trickier, and the geopolitical risk premium in crude is partially deflating (XLE, USO). The Nasdaq divergence from small caps points to a barbell: large-cap tech with FCF proof — think Amazon's AWS quarter — versus rate-sensitive small caps that borrow at floating rates in a 4.74% 10-year world (IWM at risk). Gold's flat close while yields surged and risk assets rallied is a quiet tell: gold is not selling off the way it should in a pure risk-on environment, which suggests the stagflation hedge bid is sticky underneath (GLD).

Going into today, S&P futures are up 0.63% to 7,519.25 and Nasdaq futures are up 0.59% to 28,404.25. The KOSPI's 17.9% surge is the standout APAC signal — an extraordinary move likely tied to the regional geopolitical de-escalation and warrants watching as a sentiment confirmation. The 10-year T-Note futures are down 0.50%, confirming the yield pressure carries into the open. Today's swing factor is the Iran deal headline flow: any deterioration in the 'perimeters' language from the White House could reprice crude and risk simultaneously. Watch the $84.67 oil level — a break lower confirms war premium is draining; a hold or push higher means supply concern is real. Also watch whether the Russell 2000 can reclaim yesterday's losses or continues its divergence from large caps.