International markets posted mostly gains this week, with Nikkei 225 (Asia-Pacific) leading at +3.28% and Hang Seng (Asia-Pacific) lagging at -0.63%. European indices outperformed on average (+1.04%); Asia-Pacific led (+1.31% average); Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) moved +0.90%. On the FX front, the Japanese Yen weakened 0.97%, all against the USD.
The macro picture was eventful. Germany Ifo Business Climate (February) came in above expectations (88.6 vs. 88.4).
Looking ahead, key events to watch are: Eurozone CPI Flash (February, YoY), Australia Q4 2025 GDP (QoQ). Central bank decisions in particular can drive sharp FX and equity moves; position sizing should reflect that risk.
International markets mostly rose this week. The best performer was Nikkei 225 (Asia-Pacific) at +3.3%, while Hang Seng (Asia-Pacific) was the weakest at -0.6%.
European stocks had a solid week (up +1.0% on average). If you hold European ETFs, that worked in your favour.
Asia-Pacific was the standout region this week (+1.3% average). Japan's Nikkei led the region at +3.3%.
Emerging markets (MSCI EM) gained +0.9% — a positive week for EM-tilted ETFs.
On currencies:
- The Japanese Yen weakened 1.0% against the dollar. If you hold Japan ETFs without a currency hedge, some of those stock gains were eaten up by the weaker Yen.
On the economic data front:
- Germany's Ifo Business Climate index ticked up to 88.6 — a tentative sign that Europe's largest economy may be stabilising. Not a recovery, but the direction is improving.
- The Bank of Japan released meeting minutes that showed growing debate internally about raising rates further. If the BOJ does hike, the Yen typically strengthens — good for dollar-based Japan investors, but exporters (a big chunk of Japan's market) can suffer.
- Eurozone inflation came in as expected at 1.7%. Inflation is on a cooling trend, which gives the ECB room to cut rates later in the year — a quiet positive for European bonds and dividend-paying sectors.
The bottom line: A decent week for international holdings. If you're globally diversified, this week rewarded that. Keep an eye on currency moves — they can quietly add or subtract from your returns even when the underlying stocks look fine.
Watch next week: Eurozone CPI Flash (February, YoY) and Australia Q4 2025 GDP (QoQ). These can move both local markets and currencies sharply — worth being positioned before the releases rather than reacting after.
🇪🇺 Europe
🌏 Asia-Pacific
🌍 Emerging Markets
| Index | Region | Close | Weekly % | Week Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | Asia-Pacific | 58,850.27 | +3.28% | 56,680.88 – 59,332.43 |
| FTSE 100 | Europe | 10,910.60 | +2.09% | 10,645.80 – 10,934.90 |
| ASX 200 | Asia-Pacific | 9,198.60 | +1.29% | 8,987.20 – 9,202.90 |
| CAC 40 | Europe | 8,580.75 | +0.99% | 8,461.88 – 8,642.23 |
| MSCI EM | Emerging Markets | 62.58 | +0.90% | 61.51 – 65.96 |
| DAX | Europe | 25,284.26 | +0.68% | 24,878.10 – 25,405.97 |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | Europe | 6,138.41 | +0.40% | 6,084.69 – 6,199.78 |
| Hang Seng | Asia-Pacific | 26,630.54 | -0.63% | 26,373.01 – 27,156.28 |
| Currency Pair | Rate | Weekly % |
|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | 0.7102 | -0.08% |
| CHF/USD | 1.2933 | -0.17% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1803 | -0.23% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3491 | -0.28% |
| JPY/USD | 0.0064 | -0.97% |
| Date | Event | Actual | Expected | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Germany Ifo Business Climate (February) | 88.6 | 88.4 | 87.6 | Above |
| 2026-02-24 | BOJ Summary of Opinions (January MPM) | -- | -- | -- | Inline |
| 2026-02-25 | Eurozone CPI Final (January, YoY) | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | Inline |
📈 Germany Ifo Business Climate (February)
German business confidence rose for the second consecutive month, reaching its highest level since August 2025. Manufacturing expectations improved on stronger order flows and upward production planning revisions. However, at 88.6 the index remains well below the long-run average, signaling a recovery that is tentative at best. Euro edged higher on the data; a sustained move above 90 would be needed to confirm a genuine turnaround in Europe's largest economy.
🏦 BOJ Summary of Opinions (January MPM)
The summary of opinions from the BOJ's January 22-23 meeting (at which the policy rate was held at 0.75%) revealed an increasingly hawkish internal debate. Multiple members indicated readiness to raise rates further if spring Shunto wage negotiations confirm broad-based pay increases above 3%. The yen firmed modestly on publication. EWJ outlook remains mixed: a stronger yen pressures exporters, but a normalizing BOJ signals macro confidence. Next BOJ meeting in late March is now a live event for markets.
🔥 Eurozone CPI Final (January, YoY)
Final Eurozone CPI for January confirmed the flash estimate at 1.7% — the lowest since September 2024 and well below the ECB's 2% target. Core CPI was confirmed at 2.2%, its lowest since October 2021. The print reinforces the ECB's data-dependent hold stance adopted at its February 5 meeting. Modestly positive for Eurozone rate-sensitive assets (EZU, FXE); the low inflation backdrop gives the ECB room to cut later in 2026 if growth disappoints.
| Date | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | China NBS Manufacturing PMI (February) | Medium |
| 2026-03-03 | Eurozone CPI Flash (February, YoY) | High |
| 2026-03-04 | Australia Q4 2025 GDP (QoQ) | High |
| 2026-03-06 | Eurozone Q4 2025 GDP Final (YoY) | Medium |
| Signal | Suggested Action |
|---|---|
| The Japanese Yen weakened 0.97% against the USD | This reduces USD returns on unhedged Japan exposure (EWJ). Watch BOJ policy signals; any rate hike could trigger a sharp Yen reversal. |
| Eurozone CPI Flash on 2026-03-03 | A hot print would extend the ECB hold and pressure European bond proxies, while a soft print opens the door for H2 rate cuts, supportive of EFA, FEZ, and EUR-denominated duration. |