Markets rallied across the board this week, with Russell 2000 leading at +2.77% and USD Index lagging at +0.79%. On the safe-haven front, Gold climbing 2.68% to $2,942.10 while the 10-year yield rising to 4.53% while the dollar strengthening 0.79% to 109.05.
The macro picture was busy. Housing Starts came in below expectations (1.37M vs. 1.42M). S&P Global Flash Services PMI came in below expectations (49.7 vs. 53.0).
Looking ahead, the key events to watch are: Q4 GDP (Second Estimate), PCE Price Index. Position sizing and hedges should reflect the potential for volatility around these releases.
📈 Large Cap
📊 Broad Market
🏦 Fixed Income
| Index | Close | Weekly % | Week Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russell 2000 | 2,343.20 | +2.77% | 2,270.00 – 2,365.00 |
| Gold | 2,942.10 | +2.68% | 2,858.20 – 2,948.20 |
| Nasdaq | 20,005.80 | +1.66% | 19,620.50 – 20,080.50 |
| S&P 500 | 6,106.40 | +1.12% | 6,020.10 – 6,130.50 |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.53 | +5 bps | 4.46 – 4.60 |
| Dow Jones | 44,795.10 | +1.07% | 44,250.00 – 44,800.00 |
| USD Index | 109.05 | +0.79% | 107.90 – 109.40 |
| Date | Event | Actual | Expected | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | -- | -- | -- | Inline |
| 2026-02-19 | Housing Starts | 1.37M | 1.42M | 1.5M | Below |
| 2026-02-20 | S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.6 | 51.5 | 51.2 | Inline |
| 2026-02-20 | S&P Global Flash Services PMI | 49.7 | 53.0 | 52.9 | Below |
📊 FOMC Meeting Minutes
Minutes reaffirmed the Fed's data-dependent stance with no imminent rate cuts. Officials noted progress on inflation but flagged uncertainty around tariffs and labor market resilience.
📊 Housing Starts
Weaker housing starts signal affordability pressure and builder caution. Rate-sensitive homebuilder ETFs (ITB, XHB) may face headwinds until mortgage rates ease.
📊 S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing activity continues to expand modestly. Neutral to mildly positive for industrials (XLI). No major change to the macro narrative.
📊 S&P Global Flash Services PMI
Services sector unexpectedly contracted -- a notable miss. Consumer-facing and discretionary sectors (XLY, XLP) may see volatility. Watch for confirmation in ISM Services next week.
| Date | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Consumer Confidence | Medium |
| 2026-02-25 | Durable Goods Orders | Medium |
| 2026-02-26 | Q4 GDP (Second Estimate) | High |
| 2026-02-27 | PCE Price Index | High |
| 2026-02-27 | Personal Income & Spending | Medium |
| Signal | Suggested Action |
|---|---|
| USD Index strengthened +0.79% this week | A stronger dollar weighs on multinational earnings and commodities. Consider reducing exposure to export-heavy sectors and commodity ETFs (GLD, DJP). |
| Housing Starts missed at 1.37M vs. 1.42M | Affordability pressure weighs on homebuilders (ITB, XHB). Watch mortgage rate trajectory before adding real estate exposure. |
| Services PMI missed at 49.7 vs. 53.0 expected | Services sector contraction is a caution signal. Consider trimming consumer discretionary (XLY) and adding defensives (XLP, XLU). |
| GDP release on 2026-02-26 | A weak print could shift sentiment toward defensives (XLU, XLP); a strong beat supports risk-on positioning in cyclicals (XLY, XLI). |
| PCE Price Index on 2026-02-27 | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A hot print could reprice rate-cut expectations; consider hedging bond duration (TLT) and adding inflation protection (TIPS, GLD). |