It was a down week across the board for equities: S&P 500 closing at 6,878.88 (-0.32%), Nasdaq closing at 22,668.21 (-0.76%), Dow Jones closing at 48,977.92 (-1.13%), Russell 2000 closing at 2,632.36 (-0.85%). The decline was broad-based — all major indices moved lower together, a sign of broad risk-off sentiment rather than isolated sector weakness.

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 11 bps to 3.96% — falling yields typically reflect growth concerns or cooling inflation expectations, and lift bond prices. Gold surged +2.15% to $5,230.50, a strong safe-haven bid suggesting investors are seeking cover from uncertainty. The dollar was largely flat on the week (DXY: 97.57), providing no meaningful currency tailwind or headwind.

Trade policy tensions added a layer of uncertainty, with tariff headlines raising the cost outlook for import-dependent sectors.

On the economic data front, Consumer Confidence (CB, February) beat expectations (91.2 vs. 88.4 forecast); PPI (January 2026, MoM) beat expectations (0.5% vs. 0.3% forecast). The combination of hot inflation prints and resilient consumer sentiment reinforces a higher-for-longer rate outlook — the Fed has little incentive to cut while both conditions hold.

Next week's calendar is heavy. The jobs report will set the tone on labor market resilience. Volatility around these releases is likely — position before the prints, not after. Secondary data to watch: ADP Employment Change (February), Unemployment Rate (February).

Stocks pulled back modestly this week. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% — a $32 hit on a $10,000 portfolio, nothing dramatic.

Bond yields fell 11 bps to 3.96% — a flight-to-safety signal that reinforces the risk-off read across the week.

Consumer Confidence came in at 91.2 — higher than expected. Everyday Americans feel relatively okay about their jobs and finances, which tends to support continued spending. The Producer Price Index — what businesses pay for their inputs — came in hotter than expected at 0.5%. When businesses pay more to make things, they eventually pass those costs on to consumers. It also signals the Fed probably won't be cutting rates anytime soon. The big non-data story this week was trade policy. Tariffs raise costs for U.S. companies that import goods — that pressure can squeeze profit margins and eventually show up as higher prices, adding uncertainty the market doesn't love.

Nonfarm Payrolls (February) lands next week — the monthly jobs report. A strong print keeps the Fed on hold and supports risk-on positioning. A weak number shifts sentiment toward earlier rate cuts — positive for bonds and rate-sensitive sectors. Either way, be positioned before Friday's release.