This is a risk-off session driven by geopolitical shock. The Iran conflict is the story — WTI crude surged +13% to $103/bbl as markets price in a genuine supply disruption risk. That’s not a routine move; it’s the kind of oil spike that historically pressures consumer spending, widens inflation expectations, and hits growth stocks hard.

Global equity markets are pricing in real fear. Overnight, Japan fell 5.2%, South Korea nearly 6%, and Australia 2.9%. European markets are down ~2.5% in early trade. The S&P 500’s -1.3% close yesterday now looks like a preview — futures are pointing to another -1% at the open. When you see this kind of synchronized selling across regions, it’s a flight to safety, not a dip to buy blindly.

What to watch: If crude sustains above $100, expect pressure on airlines, consumer discretionary, and anything with tight margins. Energy names and defense stocks are the relative winners in this environment.