US equities closed broadly higher yesterday: S&P 500 +0.83% to 6,795.99, Nasdaq +1.38% to 22,695.95, Russell 2000 +1.12%, and the Dow +0.50% to 47,740.80. The real story was cross-asset: gold surged +1.95% to $5,190.80, the USD index fell -0.50% to 98.68, 10-year yields barely moved (+0.3 bps to 4.136%), and WTI crude collapsed -6.86% to $88.27 — a seismic single-session move in oil that set the table for everything else.

The catalyst is the Strait of Hormuz. Markets spent recent sessions pricing in potential Iranian retaliation and a full-blown Gulf disruption; yesterday, Trump's comments on the Iran situation — suggesting the U.S. would not pursue direct military engagement and opening diplomatic channels — triggered an immediate crude dump. Think of it like a risk-premium unwind: oil had been acting like a war-insurance policy, and traders suddenly stopped paying the premium. That unwinding cascaded into equity gains (energy input costs falling = margin relief), but gold's simultaneous surge and the weaker dollar signal that investors aren't fully convinced the geopolitical risk is off the table — they're hedging the relief rally.

For you, the playbook splits cleanly by sector. Energy ETFs (XLE) face direct headwinds — a $6+ single-day crude drop hits E&P cash flows and energy sector multiples hard; this is not a dip to buy unless oil stabilizes above $85. Conversely, consumer discretionary and airlines (XLY, JETS) are clear beneficiaries as lower fuel costs flow directly to margins. Gold's continued strength despite the risk-on tone is the anomaly worth owning — (GLD) is not selling off into this rally, which historically signals persistent dollar-debasement and macro uncertainty bids; the gold trade has legs. Defensive utilities (XLU) and long bonds (TLT) are less compelling today as the rate picture is unchanged and the immediate fear trade is easing.

Pre-market futures are flat to marginally positive — S&P futures at 6,800.25, Nasdaq futures +0.08%, essentially a non-event open. The big APAC signal is KOSPI +5.35%, historically a high-beta proxy for global risk appetite; that kind of move in Seoul means the professional money is aggressively covering geopolitical hedges. Europe is up 2%+, DAX and Euro Stoxx leading. Today's swing factor is whether WTI crude holds below $89 or snaps back — any headline suggesting Iran talks are deteriorating or Hormuz access is threatened would immediately reverse yesterday's narrative and hit the broad market. No major economic data today; pure news and technicals drive the tape.