Geopolitics drove yesterday's selloff, but the cross-asset read is the real tell: gold dropped *alongside* stocks while the dollar caught every safe-haven bid — a dollar-only flight that rarely stays quiet. Futures are green across the board this morning; the market's calling it a dip, but with no data on the calendar and Hormuz headlines still running hot, that thesis gets tested at the open.

Stocks pulled back modestly yesterday. The S&P 500 closed 6,632.19 (-0.61%), the Nasdaq 22,105.36 (-0.93%), the Dow 46,558.47 (-0.26%), the Russell 2000 2,480.05 (-0.36%). Selling was broad — all four major indices closed in the red. On the cross-asset front: Gold fell 1.02% to $5,001.10, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 bps to 4.29%, and WTI crude fell 1.82% to $96.91/bbl.

Geopolitics was the session's dominant force. Brent crude holds above $100 as Trump says U.S. may hit Iran's oil hub again 'just for fun'. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint — roughly 20% of global oil supply transits through it daily. Any credible disruption threat moves energy markets and ripples through inflation expectations, transportation costs, and emerging-market currencies. A notable cross-asset signal: gold fell 1.02% despite the equity decline. Normally, geopolitical stress pushes investors into gold. When gold drops alongside stocks, it typically signals that the dollar is the real safe-haven destination — investors are buying USD, not bullion. The 10-year yield's near-flat move confirms there was no meaningful rotation into Treasuries either — the flight-to-safety trade went straight to cash and the dollar.

For diversified ETF holders, here's what to watch: Oil's 1.82% decline is a quiet tailwind for consumer-facing sectors — lower energy costs flow into margins for transportation (XTN), retail (XRT), and airlines.

Keep a close eye on: geopolitical headlines — any escalation or de-escalation will move oil, FX, and risk sentiment quickly; gold — if risk-off sentiment re-intensifies, gold could recover sharply as the safe-haven trade catches up.

Pre-market is pointing to a positive open (S&P +0.76% | Nasdaq +0.88% | Dow +1.17%). The market is treating yesterday's decline as a dip, not a trend. Watch whether buyers follow through with conviction once cash markets open, or whether early strength fades.

APAC was mixed overnight (3 up, 2 down) — Hang Seng led (+1.45%), while ASX 200 lagged (-0.39%).

No major US economic releases are scheduled today, so direction will come entirely from news flow, geopolitical developments, and any Fed speakers. Quiet data days can amplify headline-driven moves in either direction.

For investors, the key question is whether this is a dip within a structural geopolitical premium or the beginning of a genuine reversal. Energy ETFs (XLE, USO) remain tied to Hormuz headline flow — any actual supply disruption or military escalation re-ignites the trade hard. Gold (GLD) holding the $5,000 psychological level in futures is critical; a clean break below likely triggers systematic selling, but a hold sets up the next leg higher. Defense names (ITA) remain structurally bid given the broader Middle East tension. Bonds (TLT) are not pricing in a flight-to-safety at current yield levels — bonds never bought the geopolitical rally — which is a quiet warning that the risk premium in equities may be underdone.

Going into today, S&P futures are up 0.76% to 6,686 and Nasdaq futures are up nearly 0.9%, pointing to a strong gap-up open. Notably, Hang Seng surged 1.45% and KOSPI gained 1.14% — Asian risk appetite is firmly on, with China talking up oil self-sufficiency and possibly cushioning Hormuz fears. The swing factor today is entirely geopolitical: watch for any update on the Trump-Beijing summit status and any fresh Hormuz/Iran escalation. WTI holding below $100 is the key technical line — crude above $100 changes the inflation narrative and could snap the equity futures rally before the open.