Iran struck UAE energy infrastructure and a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz — equities shrugged it off yesterday (+1.01% S&P), but oil is already up 4% pre-market and futures are red. Today's question: does the risk premium stick this time, or does the tape dismiss it again?

Stocks had a solid session. The S&P 500 closed 6,699.38 (+1.01%), the Nasdaq 22,374.18 (+1.22%), the Dow 46,946.41 (+0.83%), the Russell 2000 2,503.29 (+0.94%). Broad-based. All four major indices closed green. Elsewhere: Gold fell 1.20% to $5,007.00, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 bps to 4.22%, and WTI crude fell 0.00% to $93.50/bbl.

Geopolitics ran the session yesterday. Iran targets UAE energy infrastructure as gas field set ablaze, tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint — roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through it daily. Any credible threat moves energy markets. That ripples into inflation expectations, transportation costs, and EM currencies.

Here's what this means for your portfolio. Falling yields (4.22% now) lift rate-sensitive sectors: REITs (VNQ), utilities (XLU), and long-duration growth stocks. Ask whether the decline reflects growth fears — bad for cyclicals — or simply easing inflation. The answer changes the trade.

Watch: geopolitical headlines — escalation or de-escalation will move oil, FX, and risk sentiment quickly.

Pre-market is cautious (S&P -0.30% | Nasdaq -0.40% | Dow -0.30%). Despite a solid session yesterday, sellers are pushing back in pre-market. Early weakness that holds is a sign the rally needs to consolidate.

APAC was mixed overnight (4 up, 1 down) — KOSPI led (+1.63%), while Nikkei 225 lagged (-0.09%).

No data today. Markets trade on news flow, Fed speakers, and whatever the tape feels like. Quiet data days can actually amplify headline-driven moves — less signal to anchor against.

For investors, the playbook shifts meaningfully this morning. Energy is the trade that re-emerged overnight — XLE, XOP, and UCO are all in focus with WTI futures at $95.64 and climbing. Defense names via ITA deserve a hard look given the regional escalation. Meanwhile, the AI/tech bid (QQQ, NVDA-heavy SMH) may face a reality check as risk appetite reprices with oil at these levels — growth and energy rarely rally together for long. Treasuries (TLT, IEF) retain their safe-haven bid; the 6.5bp drop yesterday was not noise. Gold (GLD) selling off into a geopolitical event is anomalous and worth watching — if it reclaims $5,050+, the dip was a shakeout, not a reversal.

Going into today, S&P futures are off 0.3% at 6,679 and Nasdaq futures -0.4% at 22,284 — a modest but directionally clear fade from yesterday's highs. APAC was mixed and low-conviction (Nikkei flat, KOSPI +1.6%, Hang Seng barely green), while early European trade shows FTSE +0.5% and CAC +0.49% likely catching a bid from energy exposure. The swing factor today is entirely geopolitical: any escalation in Hormuz shipping disruptions, a retaliatory Iranian strike, or a US policy response on the Strait could push WTI through $98–$100 and reprice the entire risk complex. There is no scheduled US economic data today — this session lives and dies on headlines.