Oil crossed $100 yesterday for the first time this cycle — driven by Iran war premium after Trump invoked emergency powers to approve $23B in Gulf arms sales. But here's the read the rest of the tape is giving you: gold fell, the dollar strengthened, and equities only slipped modestly. This is not classic risk-off. It's a supply-shock story. And now pre-market WTI futures are down nearly 6% after Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled the U.S. may release sanctioned Iranian crude to cool prices — the $100 print may already be the peak of this leg.

Stocks slipped broadly but shallowly. The S&P 500 closed 6,606.49 (-0.27%), the Nasdaq 22,105.36 (-0.21%), the Dow 46,021.43 (-0.44%), the Russell 2000 2,470.89 (-0.31%). All four red, none of them broken. This is a bruise.

Oil crossed the $100 threshold. WTI crude closed at $100.22/bbl (+1.59%), clearing the psychologically significant $100 level. The driver is war premium — Strait of Hormuz disruption risk is now fully in the price. But pre-market WTI futures are at $94.32 (-5.89%), the sharpest single-session futures reversal this cycle. If the Bessent Iranian crude release materialises, the inflation tail risk that moved yields and clipped equities yesterday evaporates fast.

Gold fell, dollar strengthened — not your typical war trade. Gold -0.64% to $4,830. Dollar +0.33%. In a classic risk-off setup you'd expect the opposite. Instead, the market repriced energy and inflation risk specifically — not broad global instability. The 10-year yield ticked up 4 bps to 4.32%, consistent with oil feeding into inflation expectations. Supply-shock signal, not flight-to-safety.

APAC closed sharply lower. Every major Asian market was down, with India and Japan bearing the heaviest losses. Energy-import-dependent economies — South Korea, Japan, India — are getting hit hardest. The Iran war premium is a structural headwind for them until oil settles.

Europe opened in the red. All four major European indices were lower in early session trading. The DAX and FTSE led declines, each off nearly 2%.

Futures are pointing to a slightly negative open. S&P -0.18%, Nasdaq -0.20%, Dow -0.40%. The overnight relief trade has fully unwound. Pre-market gold futures are also -2.52% to $4,708 — consistent with a supply-shock repricing rather than a safe-haven bid.

Watch: the Bessent Iranian crude headline is the swing factor today. Confirmed release -- oil retraces, yields ease, equities recover. Silence or reversal -- $100 oil stays in the price and risk-off deepens.

On the calendar: New Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET (low impact). Markets trade on geopolitical news flow today.

For ETF investors, the energy trade is bifurcating sharply. Energy equity ETFs (XLE, XOP) face a squeeze — oil falling 6% pre-market will hammer E&P names even as the geopolitical backdrop remains hostile. GLD is giving back gains but the thesis hasn't changed; if this is profit-taking rather than a trend reversal, it may be a re-entry opportunity. Defense names (ITA, XAR) should catch a bid on the $23B arms deal and escalating conflict. Meanwhile, TLT is not rallying despite global risk-off — bonds never bought the rally and aren't buying the fear either, which tells you the Fed credibility question (Trump signaling DOJ probe of Powell, complicating the Warsh nomination) is keeping a lid on duration.

Going into today, S&P futures are down -0.18% — suspiciously calm given the APAC carnage. Watch whether that gap closes violently at the open or futures hold. The single biggest swing factor is the sanctioned Iranian crude release decision: if confirmed, oil crashes further and energy equities get crushed; if walked back, WTI bounces and the whole commodity complex re-prices. Secondary watch: any Fed credibility headline around the Powell probe or Warsh nomination could spike yields and pressure rate-sensitive ETFs. New Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET is a minor data point in this environment.