WTI crude posted +11.4% overnight — its largest single-session surge in years — after Trump threatened to destroy Iranian infrastructure and Iran began formalizing Strait of Hormuz traffic monitoring with Oman. Gold's -2.75% selloff is the structural tell: safe-haven money rotated into oil, not metals — this is a supply-shock trade, not a broad flight to quality — and equity futures are soft because the market hasn't yet priced what sustained $110+ crude does to margins and inflation expectations.

US equities closed mixed and essentially flat: the S&P 500 at 6,582 (+0.11%), Nasdaq at 21,879 (+0.18%), and the Russell 2000 at 2,530 (+0.70%), while the Dow dipped -0.13% to 46,505. The real action was elsewhere — WTI crude exploded +11.4% to $111.54, its largest single-session move in years. Gold reversed sharply, falling -2.75% to $4,651, while the 10-year yield barely moved at 4.313% (-0.6bps) and the USD index held near flat at 100.09.

The catalyst is unmistakable: Trump's direct threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure, combined with an IRNA report that Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to 'monitor' Strait of Hormuz traffic — the choke point for roughly 20% of global oil supply. This is the 1970s oil-shock playbook: geopolitical threat to supply → crude spikes → energy stocks surge → broader market stalls as input costs rise. A stronger-than-expected payrolls print (178K vs. estimates, unemployment 4.3%) briefly steadied equities, but the crude surge overshadows the macro data by a wide margin. Gold's selloff is the anomaly — it likely reflects profit-taking from recent highs and short-term dollar demand, not a dismissal of risk.

For investors, the energy trade is decisively back on the table. Oil services and upstream producers (XLE, XOP) are the direct play on sustained $110+ crude. But the secondary effects matter more: airlines, trucking, and consumer discretionary (XLY) face a cost-shock headwind, while utilities (XLU) and short-duration bonds (SHY) offer partial insulation. TLT is a trap here — if crude stays elevated and inflation re-accelerates, the long end sells off. Gold's pullback may be a gift if the Hormuz situation escalates further; GLD dips are likely bought by macro funds running geopolitical hedges. Tech (QQQ) is vulnerable not from oil directly, but from the Section 230 legal assault on Meta and Google that quietly advanced yesterday.

Going into today, S&P futures are -0.28% at 6,603 and Nasdaq futures -0.36%, signaling a soft open that could sharpen if crude holds above $110 in early trading. APAC was split — KOSPI surged +2.74% and Nikkei +1.26% (benefiting from energy exporters and yen dynamics), while ASX dropped -1.06% and Hang Seng -0.70%. The swing factor today is the Hormuz headline risk: any escalation in US-Iran rhetoric or naval posturing will send crude higher and pressure equities further; a diplomatic walkback is the only thing that breaks the oil bid. Watch the 6,550 level on the S&P as the first technical support — a break there on volume would signal the market is re-pricing the inflation tail risk more seriously.