The dominant theme today is the "Hormuz Deadlock" repricing across every asset class simultaneously. Friday's ceasefire rally is fully unwinding: WTI crude is surging +6% to ~$89 and Brent is approaching $96.50 as Iran reversed its decision to reopen the Strait following the USS Spruance's seizure of the *Touska*. But unlike a clean risk-off or supply-shock trade, the cross-asset picture is messy - gold is pulling back from Friday's record close ($4,857 to $4,829), the 10-year yield is climbing to 4.27% as markets price persistent inflation, and S&P 500 futures are off 0.58% to 7,085. That combination - oil up, bonds selling off, gold fading, equities weak - is the textbook stagflation signal: energy costs rising, growth slowing, and the Fed boxed in with Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing tomorrow.

Friday's session was a broad risk-on sweep: Russell 2000 led at +2.1%, Dow closed at 49,447, Nasdaq added 1.5%, and the S&P 500 settled at 7,126 - all riding optimism from what appeared to be a diplomatic thaw. Gold closed at a record $4,857 (+1.5%), the 10-year yield fell 6.3 bps to 4.246%, and WTI crude cratered 11.4% to $83.85 as traders priced demand destruction from a Hormuz reopening.

The weekend destroyed that thesis entirely. The *Touska* seizure ended any de-escalation story: Iran signaled withdrawal from the Islamabad peace talks and allegedly opened fire on Indian-flagged vessels in the Strait. Markets are now in a full 180 - crude bouncing back toward where it was before Friday's collapse, yields rising on the inflation-from-energy narrative, and gold giving back some of Friday's gains as profit-taking hits the extended long. The signal beneath the noise: bonds and gold are both selling off while oil surges - that's not fear, it's stagflation pricing. Investors aren't fleeing to safety; they're pricing a world where the Fed can't cut and energy stays expensive.

Beyond Iran, two weekend events add to the regime-change feel: Hungary's Tisza Party ousted Viktor Orbán's Fidesz in a landslide, with new leader Péter Magyar pledging to lift Hungary's EU aid veto on Ukraine - a significant European geopolitical realignment. And Rory McIlroy won the 2026 Masters, providing the one piece of uncomplicated good news from the weekend.

For ETF investors, the playbook has shifted from "geopolitical risk-off" to "stagflation positioning." The key inputs: oil up +6%, 10Y yield rising to 4.27%, gold pulling back, equities soft. That's not a war-panic trade - it's an inflation-persistence trade.

GLD is no longer the slam-dunk it looked like Friday. Gold is down from its close as profit-taking hits the extended position, and rising nominal yields are a headwind. It remains a long-term hedge but it's not the momentum trade this morning. XLE is the reversal story: energy stocks sold off hard Friday on the crude collapse and haven't repriced the +6% crude bounce yet - with WTI holding above $87, XLE is a buy-the-laggard setup. ITA benefits from geopolitical escalation (Mitsubishi warship deal, UK's 120,000-drone Ukraine package, Hungary's NATO realignment) and doesn't move with oil. TLT is in the worst position: yields rising on inflation fears plus Warsh's "higher-for-longer" reputation means duration is the asset most at risk today.

Going into today, S&P futures are down ~0.58% to 7,085, pulling back from Friday's historic close above 7,000. The 9:15 AM ET Industrial Production print is today's scheduled data point but is second-tier. The real swing factors are: (1) whether Tehran formally withdraws from Islamabad talks, and (2) what tone Kevin Warsh sets ahead of tomorrow's confirmation hearing. Technically, 7,050 on the S&P is the first meaningful support after Friday's gap-up; a break there opens the door to a retest of 6,950.