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No economics degree required. Each card explains one concept — what it is, why it matters, how often it’s published, and what the recent trend means for your money.

No cards match “” — try a shorter term or browse by category.
Inflation
CPI
Consumer Price Index

Prices go up over time — that's inflation. CPI measures exactly how much. It tracks a basket of everyday items — groceries, rent, gas, clothing — and shows how much more (or less) they cost compared to a year ago. When CPI climbs fast, your money buys less than it used to.

Tracks price changes across 8 categories: Food & Beverage, Housing, Apparel, Transportation, Medical Care, Recreation, Education, and Other.
Latest Data · BLS
CPI — Current Trend
3.3%
YoY · Mar '26
CPI YoY — Monthly
2.7%
Dec '25
2.4%
Jan '26
2.4%
Feb '26
3.3%
Mar '26
Core CPI
2.6%
Excl. food & energy
Fed Target
2.0%
Still above target
What This Means For You

Shelter costs keep headline CPI sticky above target — rent and equivalent homeowner costs make up ~35% of the index and are slow to fall. The Fed is watching core CPI closely; until it drops toward 2.5%, rate cuts remain on hold.

Central Banks
Fed Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate

The single most powerful interest rate in the world. It's what banks charge each other for overnight loans — and it ripples through everything else: your mortgage rate, your car loan, your credit card APR. When the Fed raises it, borrowing gets more expensive across the board.

When FFR rises → borrowing costs increase → spending slows → inflation cools. When FFR falls → cheaper credit → spending rises → economy stimulated.
Latest Decision · FOMC
Fed Funds Rate — Current
3.50–3.75%
Target · Mar '26
Rate Path — Last 4 FOMC Decisions
3.50–3.75%
Dec '25
3.50–3.75%
Jan '26
3.50–3.75%
Feb '26
3.50–3.75%
Mar '26
Last Cut
Dec 18 · 2025
−25 bps
Next FOMC
Mar 19 · 2026
Hold expected
What This Means For You

The Fed is in wait-and-see mode after three cuts in late 2025. Markets have 1–2 more cuts priced in for 2026, but only if inflation cooperates. Higher rates mean bond yields stay elevated — a challenge for growth stocks but an opportunity for fixed-income investors.

Employment
Non-Farm Payrolls
Non-Farm Payrolls

Every first Friday of the month, the government reveals how many jobs were added or lost — excluding farm workers. It's the most market-moving number of the month. A big miss can send stocks down hundreds of points within minutes of the release.

NFP > 150K/month → healthy labor market. NFP < 75K/month → potential slowdown. NFP negative → jobs being cut.
Latest Data · BLS
Non-Farm Payrolls — Current
+178K
Mar '26
Monthly Job Additions (thousands)
-17K
Dec '25
160K
Jan '26
-133K
Feb '26
178K
Mar '26
Unemployment Rate
4.3%
Historically low
Avg Hourly Earnings
+3.5%
YoY · above inflation
What This Means For You

Payrolls are cooling from 2025's strong pace but still positive — a soft landing signal. Wage growth above 4% keeps consumer spending firm, which supports corporate earnings but also keeps the Fed cautious about cutting rates too fast.

Inflation
PCE
Personal Consumption Expenditures

Similar to CPI, but the Fed trusts it more. PCE measures what Americans actually spend on goods and services — and it adjusts when people swap expensive items for cheaper ones. That makes it a more honest picture of real-world inflation. When PCE runs hot, rate cuts get pushed back.

PCE differs from CPI: it adjusts for substitution behavior — when prices rise, consumers switch to cheaper alternatives — making it a more realistic measure of actual purchasing patterns.
Latest Data · BEA
Core PCE — Current Trend
3.0%
Core YoY · Feb '26
Core PCE YoY — Monthly
2.8%
Nov '25
3.0%
Dec '25
3.1%
Jan '26
3.0%
Feb '26
Headline PCE
2.8%
Incl. food & energy
Fed Target
2.0%
Still above target
What This Means For You

Core PCE above target keeps the Fed cautious, but the pace of rise matters most — it's ticking up slowly, not surging. If it stalls or reverses in coming months, the door opens for mid-2026 rate cuts, which would benefit bond holders and rate-sensitive sectors like real estate.

Markets
Yield Curve
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve (10Y–2Y)

A snapshot of how much interest the government pays to borrow money at different time horizons — 2 years, 10 years, 30 years. Normally, longer loans pay higher rates. When that flips — short-term rates above long-term ones — it's called an inversion, and every U.S. recession in the past 50 years was preceded by one.

Normal: 10Y yield > 2Y yield → growth expected. Inverted: 10Y yield < 2Y yield → recession signal. Uninverting: spread returning to positive → mixed signal.
Latest Data · U.S. Treasury
10Y–2Y Spread — Current
+0.54%
Mar '26
10Y–2Y Spread — Monthly
+0.64%
Dec '25
+0.67%
Jan '26
+0.66%
Feb '26
+0.54%
Mar '26
10Y Treasury
4.25%
Benchmark yield
2Y Treasury
3.71%
Policy-sensitive
What This Means For You

The curve is finally uninverting after a record inversion — historically a mixed signal. A sustained positive spread with improving growth data points to recovery; a quick re-inversion would be a warning sign.

Inflation
PPI
Producer Price Index

PPI measures the average change in prices that domestic producers receive for their output — raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished products. It's CPI's upstream cousin: what businesses pay before consumers do.

PPI rising → production costs climbing → CPI likely to followPPI falling → deflationary pressure building upstream
Latest Data · BLS
PPI — Current Trend
3.2%
YoY · Feb '26
PPI Final Demand YoY — Monthly
3.3%
Nov '25
3.0%
Dec '25
2.0%
Jan '26
3.2%
Feb '26
Core PPI
3.6%
Excl. food, energy & trade
vs CPI Gap
+0.4%
PPI above CPI → pressure
What This Means For You

PPI running above CPI signals that producers are absorbing some cost increases rather than fully passing them on — that margin compression often shows up in earnings misses. If producers start passing costs through, CPI could re-accelerate in coming months.

Markets
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index

The VIX measures the market's expectation of S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days, derived from the prices of S&P 500 options. It is widely called the "fear gauge" of Wall Street.

VIX < 15 → calm, complacent marketVIX 15–25 → moderate uncertaintyVIX > 30 → elevated fear / market stressVIX > 40 → crisis-level panic (seen in 2008, 2020)
Latest Data · CBOE
VIX — Current Level
25.6
Monthly Avg · Mar '26
VIX Month-End Close — Recent
15.6
Dec '25
16.2
Jan '26
19.2
Feb '26
25.6
Mar '26
Historical Average
~19
Long-run mean
Fear Threshold
20+
Currently above
What This Means For You

VIX above 20 signals elevated market anxiety — not panic, but meaningful near-term uncertainty. For long-term ETF holders, elevated VIX can be an opportunity to add to positions at better prices, as vol spikes often overshoot and revert. Avoid reactionary selling.

Trade & FX
DXY
U.S. Dollar Index

DXY measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies — primarily the Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), and three others. A higher DXY means a stronger dollar.

Strong dollar → U.S. imports cheaper · exports more expensive · foreign earnings worth less in USDWeak dollar → exports competitive · international ETFs get a currency boost
Latest Data · ICE / FRED
U.S. Dollar Index — Current
119.9
Broad Index · Mar '26
DXY Month-End Close — Recent
120.2
Dec '25
119.2
Jan '26
117.9
Feb '26
119.9
Mar '26
EUR/USD
1.073
Euro strengthening
52-Week Range
98.5–108
Near range low
What This Means For You

A weakening dollar is a tailwind for international ETFs (EFA, VEA, EEM) — foreign gains translate into more USD when you convert back. It also boosts commodity prices and eases pressure on emerging-market dollar-denominated debt. Watch for dollar stabilization if the Fed pauses cuts.

Employment
JOLTS
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

JOLTS counts how many job openings exist across the U.S. economy at month-end, plus how many workers were hired, quit, or laid off. It paints a picture of labor market dynamics, not just the headline count.

Key ratio: Job Openings ÷ Unemployed WorkersRatio > 1.0 → more jobs than people looking → tight marketThe "Quits Rate" — voluntary resignations — is the Fed's favorite confidence gauge
Latest Data · BLS
JOLTS Job Openings — Current
6.9M
Feb '26
Job Openings (millions) — Monthly
6.8M
Nov '25
6.5M
Dec '25
7.2M
Jan '26
6.9M
Feb '26
Quits Rate
2.0%
↓ from 2.4% peak
Openings per Unemployed
1.4×
Still above 1:1
What This Means For You

The quits rate at 2.0% — down from a 2.4% peak — signals workers feel less confident about jumping to new jobs. This reduces wage growth pressure, which is exactly what the Fed wants to see before cutting rates. A soft landing means openings cool gradually, not collapse.

Employment
Claims
Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)

Initial jobless claims counts the number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given week. It's the most timely labor market indicator available — data is just one week old.

< 250K/week → healthy labor market250–350K → softening, watch closely> 350K sustained → recession-level job losses
Latest Data · DOL
Initial Claims — Current
219,000
Week of 2026-04-04
Weekly Initial Claims — Last 4 Weeks
205,000
03-14
211,000
03-21
203,000
03-28
219,000
04-04
4-Week Average
219K
Historically low
Recession Threshold
350K+
Far from danger zone
What This Means For You

Claims near 220K remain historically low — the labor market isn't cracking. As long as claims stay below 250K, the economy is generating more jobs than it's losing. Watch for sustained moves above 260–280K as an early warning signal worth acting on.

Macro Indicators
Retail Sales
U.S. Advance Retail Sales (MoM)

Retail Sales measures total receipts at stores that sell consumer goods — from auto dealers to online retailers to gas stations. It is the most direct monthly read on consumer spending, which drives ~70% of U.S. GDP.

Reported month-over-month (MoM) — a positive print means consumers spent more"Control group" (ex-auto, gas, building materials) is what flows directly into GDP calculations
Latest Data · Census Bureau
Retail Sales MoM — Current
+0.6%
MoM · Feb '26
Retail Sales MoM % Change — Recent
+0.5%
Nov '25
-0.0%
Dec '25
-0.1%
Jan '26
+0.6%
Feb '26
Ex-Auto & Gas
+0.8%
Core strength
Consumer Share of GDP
~70%
Economy's engine
What This Means For You

December's −0.9% was weather and post-holiday payback; January's modest rebound signals consumers are still spending — just cautiously. The ex-auto control group at +0.8% is the cleanest signal of underlying demand. Consumer resilience supports earnings for discretionary and retail ETFs.

Macro Indicators
Housing Starts
New Residential Construction (Annualized)

Housing Starts counts the number of new residential construction projects begun in a given month, reported as an annualized rate. It measures the pulse of homebuilding activity across the U.S.

Starts > 1.5M annualized → healthy construction paceBuilding Permits (released same day) lead Starts by 1–2 monthsHighly sensitive to mortgage rates — the rate-cut barometer
Latest Data · Census Bureau / HUD
Housing Starts — Current
1.49M
Ann. Rate · Jan '26
Housing Starts (millions, annualized) — Monthly
1.27M
Oct '25
1.32M
Nov '25
1.39M
Dec '25
1.49M
Jan '26
Building Permits
1.48M
Leading indicator
30Y Mortgage Rate
6.9%
Constraining demand
What This Means For You

Housing is stuck — constrained by 6.9% mortgage rates that keep both builders and buyers cautious. A meaningful recovery needs the 10Y Treasury to fall toward 3.5–4.0%. When housing starts recover, it will confirm that Fed rate cuts are working — a bullish signal for homebuilder and REIT ETFs.

Markets
Credit Spreads
High Yield & Investment Grade Bond Spreads

A credit spread is the extra yield investors demand on corporate bonds above equivalent U.S. Treasury yields. It represents the price of default risk — how much extra return the market requires to lend to companies instead of the government.

Tight spreads (<300 bps HY) → market calm, credit conditions easyWide spreads (>500 bps HY) → stress, tightening financial conditionsIG spreads typically run 80–150 bps; HY spreads 250–600 bps in normal cycles
Latest Data · ICE BofA / FRED
HY Credit Spread — Current
3 bps
HY OAS · Mar '26
High Yield OAS — Monthly (basis points)
2
Dec '25
2
Jan '26
2
Feb '26
3
Mar '26
IG Spread
105 bps
Investment grade
Historical HY Avg
~400 bps
Near average now
What This Means For You

Spreads widening to 380 bps signals rising corporate stress — but still below the ~500 bps level that historically precedes recessions. For ETF investors, widening HY spreads are a reason to reduce exposure to junk bond funds (HYG, JNK) and favor investment-grade or Treasury ETFs until the trend reverses.

Central Banks
Real Rate
Real Interest Rate (FFR minus Core PCE)

The real interest rate strips out inflation from the nominal rate, showing what borrowers and savers actually earn or pay in purchasing-power terms. It tells you whether monetary policy is truly restrictive or just nominally high.

Real Rate = Nominal Rate − Inflation (Core PCE)Positive real rate → policy is genuinely restrictiveNegative real rate → policy is stimulative (money is "cheap")
Derived · Fed / BEA
Real Interest Rate — Current
1.91%
10Y TIPS · Mar '26
Neutral Real Rate
1.91%
Fed's r-star estimate
Policy Stance
Restrictive
+1.08% above neutral
What This Means For You

A real rate of +1.58% — well above the neutral ~0.5% — means policy is genuinely restrictive: borrowing is expensive in real terms, suppressing investment and spending. As inflation falls or the Fed cuts, the real rate will ease — that's the moment to expect a broader risk-asset rally and recovery in rate-sensitive sectors.

Macro Indicators
Michigan Sentiment
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The U of Michigan surveys ~500 households twice a month, measuring how Americans feel about their personal finances, buying conditions, and economic outlook. Released in preliminary and final form, it is the Fed's preferred sentiment gauge.

Index range: 0–100 (1964 baseline = 100)Includes a crucial sub-measure: 1-year and 5-year inflation expectationsFed watches these expectations closely — if they become "unanchored," the Fed must act
Latest Data · U of Michigan
Michigan Sentiment — Current
56.6
Feb '26
Michigan Sentiment Index — Monthly
51.0
Nov '25
52.9
Dec '25
56.4
Jan '26
56.6
Feb '26
1-Year Inflation Expectation
2.8%
Slightly above 2% target
5-Year Inflation Expectation
2.5%
Anchored but rising
What This Means For You

Michigan sentiment has fallen sharply from above 80 a year ago — consumers are genuinely worried about future inflation and earnings resilience. The 1-year inflation expectation at 2.8% is inching up, which is why the Fed remains cautious about cutting rates aggressively. Watch for further deterioration in the "expectations" component as a recession warning.

Macro Indicators
Industrial Production
Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Fed)

Industrial Production measures the real output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors — the "physical economy" that makes goods. Released monthly by the Federal Reserve, it's one of the four indicators the NBER uses to date recessions.

Paired with Capacity Utilization: how much of the economy's factory capacity is in useUtilization > 80% → inflationary pressure (economy running hot)Utilization < 77% → slack exists, no inflation pressure
Latest Data · Federal Reserve
Industrial Production MoM — Current
+0.2%
MoM · Feb '26
Industrial Production % Change MoM — Recent
+0.2%
Nov '25
+0.3%
Dec '25
+0.7%
Jan '26
+0.2%
Feb '26
Capacity Utilization
77.1%
Below 80% = no overheating
Mfg Output
+0.1%
Slight positive
What This Means For You

The January dip follows December's utilities surge — not a trend reversal. Capacity at 77.1% shows slack in the industrial economy, which is disinflationary — good for inflation expectations but suggests limited upside for industrial and materials ETFs (XLI, XLB) until demand accelerates.

Macro Indicators
Durable Goods
Durable Goods Orders (Advance Estimate)

Durable Goods Orders measures new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers for items expected to last three or more years — aircraft, machinery, computers, autos, appliances. It's a forward-looking gauge of business investment intentions.

Headline: total durable goods orders (volatile — dominated by aircraft)Core: ex-transportation = steadier readCore Capital Goods (ex-defense, ex-aircraft) = best proxy for business investment plans
Latest Data · Census Bureau
Durable Goods Orders MoM — Current
-1.3%
MoM · Feb '26
Durable Goods Orders % Change MoM — Recent
+5.4%
Nov '25
-0.9%
Dec '25
-0.4%
Jan '26
-1.3%
Feb '26
Ex-Transportation
−0.3%
Underlying soft
Core Capital Goods
+0.1%
Business investment flat
What This Means For You

The +3.1% headline surge was almost entirely Boeing aircraft orders — highly volatile, not repeatable. Strip that out and the picture is flat. Businesses aren't ramping capital investment yet, which limits upside for industrials ETFs but also means the economy isn't overheating.

Inflation
Breakeven Inflation
10-Year TIPS Breakeven Inflation Rate

The breakeven inflation rate is what the bond market expects average annual inflation to be over the next 10 years. It's derived from the yield difference between regular Treasury bonds and TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).

Breakeven Rate = 10Y Nominal Treasury Yield − 10Y TIPS Real YieldIf breakeven > Fed's 2% target → market doubts the Fed can hit its targetIf breakeven < 2% → market expects below-target inflation
Latest Data · FRED / U.S. Treasury
10Y Breakeven — Current
2.34%
10Y Breakeven · Mar '26
10-Year TIPS Breakeven — Monthly
2.24%
Dec '25
2.31%
Jan '26
2.3%
Feb '26
2.34%
Mar '26
5-Year Breakeven
2.48%
Near-term expectations higher
Fed Target
2.0%
Both above target
What This Means For You

With breakevens rising above 2.3%, bond markets are signaling that inflation will stay above target for the next decade. This reduces the case for rate cuts and keeps pressure on long-duration bonds (TLT). TIPS themselves become attractive when breakevens are rising — they pay out more as inflation rises.

Inflation
Import Prices
U.S. Import & Export Price Index (BLS)

Import prices track how much U.S. businesses pay for goods purchased from abroad — everything from foreign electronics and clothing to oil and pharmaceuticals. Rising import prices mean inflation is being "imported" into the domestic economy.

Import Price Index → feeds into PPI within ~1 month → feeds into CPI within ~2–3 monthsKey driver: tariffs are import price increases by definition — a 10% tariff = 10% import price shock on affected goods
Latest Data · BLS
Import Prices MoM — Current
+1.3%
MoM · Feb '26
Import Prices % Change MoM — Recent
+0.1%
Dec '25
+0.6%
Jan '26
+1.3%
Feb '26
YoY Import Prices
+2.2%
Accelerating
Ex-Petroleum
+1.8%
Tariff impact visible
What This Means For You

Rising import prices — partly tariff-driven — feed into producer and consumer prices within months. This is a second-wave inflation risk: even if demand is cooling, cost-push inflation from tariffs can keep CPI elevated regardless. Companies with heavy import exposure (retail, consumer goods) face margin pressure.

Inflation
Income & Spending
Personal Income & Personal Consumption Expenditures (BEA)

The BEA's monthly Personal Income and Outlays report tracks how much Americans earned and spent. It's released on the same day as PCE — in fact, PCE inflation is derived from this same data. Together they tell the full consumer story.

Personal Income growth > Spending growth → savings rate rises → disinflationarySpending growth > Income growth → consumers drawing down savings → unsustainablePersonal Savings Rate = (Income − Spending) / Income
Latest Data · BEA
Personal Spending MoM — Current
+0.5%
Spending MoM · Feb '26
Personal Spending % Change MoM — Recent
+0.3%
Nov '25
+0.4%
Dec '25
+0.3%
Jan '26
+0.5%
Feb '26
Personal Income MoM
+0.9%
Strong — income > spending
Personal Savings Rate
4.6%
Rebuilding buffers
What This Means For You

Income growing faster than spending is a disinflationary signal — consumers are saving, not splurging. The savings rate tick-up to 4.6% shows resilience, not distress. This dynamic supports a soft landing and allows the Fed room to cut without reigniting demand-driven inflation.

Employment
U-6
Broad (Real) Unemployment Rate

U-6 is the broadest official measure of unemployment. It counts not just the jobless (U-3 headline rate), but also discouraged workers who've stopped looking and people working part-time who want full-time work. It reveals labor market slack hidden in the headline.

U-3 (Headline): Unemployed ÷ Labor ForceU-6 (Broad): (Unemployed + Marginally Attached + Part-Time for Economic Reasons) ÷ Labor ForceGap between U-6 and U-3 = degree of underemployment in the economy
Latest Data · BLS
U-6 Unemployment — Current
8.0%
Mar '26
U-6 Broad Unemployment Rate — Monthly
8.4%
Dec '25
8.1%
Jan '26
7.9%
Feb '26
8.0%
Mar '26
U-3 Headline
4.1%
Looks healthy…
U-6 / U-3 Gap
3.9 pts
Widening — more slack
What This Means For You

U-6 rising to 8.0% while U-3 holds at 4.1% means the gap is widening — more workers are stuck in part-time or marginally attached situations. This signals more labor market slack than the headline implies, which is actually good for inflation control but bad for consumer spending power and wage growth momentum.

Employment
LFPR
Labor Force Participation Rate

LFPR is the percentage of the civilian non-institutional population (age 16+) that is either employed or actively looking for work. It measures how much of America's potential workforce is actually in the labor market.

LFPR = Labor Force ÷ Civilian Non-Institutional Population × 100Declining LFPR → workers leaving workforce → unemployment rate falls "artificially"Prime-Age LFPR (25–54 year olds) = cleanest signal, less affected by aging demographics
Latest Data · BLS
Labor Force Participation — Current
61.9%
Mar '26
Labor Force Participation Rate — Monthly
62.4%
Dec '25
62.1%
Jan '26
62.0%
Feb '26
61.9%
Mar '26
Pre-Pandemic Peak
63.4%
Still below Feb 2020
Prime-Age LFPR
83.7%
Near pre-pandemic high
What This Means For You

The overall LFPR drag is mostly demographic — retiring boomers, not discouraged workers. Prime-age LFPR at 83.7% is nearly fully recovered. This distinction matters: if prime-age workers are participating, the labor supply is healthy; the headline decline isn't a crisis signal but a structural demographic reality.

Central Banks
QT
Quantitative Tightening / Fed Balance Sheet Runoff

Quantitative Tightening is the Fed's process of shrinking its balance sheet by allowing Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. It is the opposite of QE (Quantitative Easing), which expanded the balance sheet by purchasing these assets.

QE: Fed buys bonds → adds money to system → lower yields, more creditQT: Fed lets bonds mature → removes money from system → upward pressure on yieldsBalance sheet peaked at $9.0T (Apr 2022); now ~$6.8T — reduced by ~$2.2T
Latest · Federal Reserve H.4.1
Fed Balance Sheet — Current
$6.66T
Total Assets · Mar '26
Fed Total Assets ($T) — Monthly
$6.64T
Dec '25
$6.59T
Jan '26
$6.61T
Feb '26
$6.66T
Mar '26
QT Pace
$25B/mo
Slowed from $60B/mo peak
Peak Balance Sheet
$9.0T
Apr 2022 · Down ~$2.2T
What This Means For You

QT at $25B/month means less Fed buying of Treasuries — the government must find private buyers for more of its debt. This keeps long-term yields elevated independent of the FFR. When the Fed eventually pauses QT (expected when reserves approach a "comfortable" floor), long bonds could rally significantly.

Central Banks
M2
M2 Money Supply

M2 measures the total supply of money in the U.S. economy — physical cash, checking accounts, savings accounts, money market funds, and small CDs. It is the broadest widely-used measure of "how much money is sloshing around."

M1: Cash + checking accounts (most liquid)M2: M1 + savings + money market funds + small CDsMilton Friedman: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" — M2 growth predicts inflation with a 12–18 month lag
Latest · Federal Reserve H.6
M2 Year-Over-Year Growth — Current
+4.9%
YoY · Feb '26
M2 Money Supply YoY Growth Rate — Monthly
+3.9%
Nov '25
+4.2%
Dec '25
+4.3%
Jan '26
+4.9%
Feb '26
M2 Level
$21.4T
Total money supply
COVID Peak Growth
+27%
2021 · drove 2022 inflation
What This Means For You

M2 growing at 4% after shrinking in 2023 means monetary conditions are easing again. Historically, sustained M2 growth above 5–6% precedes inflation with a 12–18 month lag. This is why monetarist economists are cautious about declaring victory on inflation — money supply says the fight isn't fully won.

Central Banks
SLOOS
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

Every quarter, the Fed surveys ~80 large U.S. banks and ~24 foreign banks on their lending standards. The key question: are you tightening or easing credit conditions for business loans, mortgages, and consumer credit? The net percentage is the signal.

Net % Tightening = % of banks tightening − % of banks easingPositive number → more banks making credit harder to getNegative number → more banks loosening credit (stimulative)SLOOS leads economic activity by ~6–9 months
Latest · Federal Reserve SLOOS
Net % Banks Tightening C&I Standards
+5.3%
Net Tightening · Q1 '26
Net % of Banks Tightening C&I Loan Standards — Quarterly
18.5%
Q2 '25
9.5%
Q3 '25
6.5%
Q4 '25
5.3%
Q1 '26
C&I Loans Tight
14.6%
Declining from 22.4% peak
Consumer Loans Tight
18.2%
Still restrictive
What This Means For You

Still net tightening, but the trend is clearly improving — a positive leading signal. When SLOOS returns to net neutral or easing, it typically precedes a credit expansion cycle 6–9 months later, which benefits small-cap stocks (more bank-dependent) and high-yield bonds. Watch for Q1 2026 survey results in April.

Markets
Gold
Gold Spot Price (XAU/USD)

Gold is the oldest financial asset and the world's ultimate store of value and safe-haven currency. Its price reflects a combination of inflation expectations, real interest rates, geopolitical stress, central bank demand, and the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Gold rises when: real rates fall · dollar weakens · inflation fears rise · geopolitical risk spikes · central banks buyGold falls when: real rates rise · dollar strengthens · risk appetite returnsGold has no yield — its opportunity cost is the real interest rate
Latest · LBMA / Spot Market
Gold — Current Price
$4,742
USD/oz · Apr '26
Gold Price ($/oz) — Monthly
$4,218
Nov '25
$4,326
Dec '25
$4,714
Jan '26
$4,742
Apr '26
YTD Performance
+19.6%
From ~$4,350 Jan 1
Central Bank Demand
Record
Structural driver
What This Means For You

Gold at all-time highs alongside elevated real rates (which typically suppress gold) is unusual — driven by central bank de-dollarization buying and geopolitical hedging. A 5–10% gold allocation via GLD or IAU provides portfolio diversification; gold's correlation to equities has been near zero over the past decade.

Markets
WTI
WTI Crude Oil Price (West Texas Intermediate)

WTI is the benchmark price for U.S.-produced crude oil, set at trading hubs in Cushing, Oklahoma. It is one of the most widely traded commodities in the world — and because oil touches almost every sector of the economy, its price ripples through inflation, corporate margins, and consumer spending.

Oil high → gasoline prices rise · transportation costs rise · CPI risesOil low → consumer "tax cut" effect · airline, shipping margins improve · but signals weak demandEvery $10/bbl rise in oil adds approximately 0.2–0.3% to U.S. CPI
Latest · NYMEX / EIA
WTI Crude Oil — Current
$91.4
USD/bbl · Mar '26
WTI Crude Oil Price ($/bbl) — Monthly
$58.0
Dec '25
$60.0
Jan '26
$64.5
Feb '26
$91.4
Mar '26
Brent Crude
$74.2
Global benchmark
OPEC+ Target
~$70
Production cuts calibrated here
What This Means For You

Oil near $70 is a Goldilocks level — low enough not to spike CPI, high enough not to signal demand collapse. OPEC+ production cuts are preventing a price drop that would reflect weak global growth. Watch for moves above $85 (inflation risk) or below $60 (demand recession signal) as the levels that would change the macro story.

Trade & FX
Trade Balance
U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

The trade balance measures the difference between U.S. exports and imports. When imports exceed exports (the U.S. norm), the result is a trade deficit. The U.S. has run a persistent trade deficit for decades — it is the world's largest goods importer.

Trade Balance = Exports − ImportsNegative = trade deficit (U.S. buys more from the world than it sells)Widening deficit → GDP math drag (net exports subtract from GDP)But reflects strong domestic demand — not necessarily a sign of weakness
Latest · Census Bureau / BEA
Trade Balance — Current
$-57B
Feb '26
U.S. Monthly Trade Balance ($B) — Recent
$-56B
Nov '25
$-73B
Dec '25
$-55B
Jan '26
$-57B
Feb '26
Goods Deficit
−$164B
Largest component
Services Surplus
+$32B
Tech, finance, travel
What This Means For You

The record January deficit reflects companies front-loading imports ahead of tariffs — pulling demand forward. This will mechanically drag Q1 2026 GDP growth lower, but it's a distortion, not a signal of fundamental weakness. Expect the deficit to narrow once the pre-tariff rush subsides, which could provide a GDP bounce in Q2.

Trade & FX
USD/CNY
U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan (Renminbi)

USD/CNY measures how many Chinese yuan one U.S. dollar buys. A higher number means a weaker yuan (dollar stronger). China's central bank (PBOC) sets a daily "fixing" rate and allows the yuan to trade within a ±2% band around it — making this a managed, not freely floating, exchange rate.

Stronger yuan (lower USD/CNY) → Chinese exports more expensive · easier to import · PBOC looseningWeaker yuan (higher USD/CNY) → Chinese exports cheaper · offsets some tariff impact · capital outflow riskOffshore CNH rate (freely traded in Hong Kong) often diverges from onshore CNY
Latest · PBOC / Bloomberg
USD/CNY Exchange Rate — Current
6.89
CNY per USD · Mar '26
USD/CNY (higher = weaker yuan) — Monthly
7.04
Dec '25
6.97
Jan '26
6.91
Feb '26
6.89
Mar '26
PBOC Daily Fix
7.22
Slightly stronger than market
Risk Threshold
7.50
Beyond here = EM contagion risk
What This Means For You

Yuan at 7.25 is elevated but within managed territory — the PBOC fix at 7.22 signals they're not allowing rapid depreciation. A controlled yuan limits tariff offset for China but preserves financial stability. If USD/CNY breaks 7.50, watch for a broader EM currency sell-off affecting EM ETFs (EEM, VWO) globally.

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